By I. Inojales | 03:34 PM April 22, 2026
MANILA — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has raised an El Niño Alert following forecasts indicating a high probability of the climate phenomenon developing in the coming months.
In its latest advisory, Pagasa said that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Enso)-neutral conditions currently prevail over the tropical Pacific. However, a combination of climate model outputs and expert analysis shows a 79 percent chance that El Niño will emerge during the June–July–August (JJA) 2026 season, with the event likely to persist until early 2027.
The alert is part of Pag-asa’s Enso Alert and Warning System, which is issued when there is at least a 70 percent probability of El Niño forming within the next two to three months.
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, is typically characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and cooler-than-average conditions over the Philippine Sea.
According to Pagasa, the developing El Niño increases the likelihood of drier-than-normal weather conditions in parts of the country.
This may result in dry spells and droughts, potentially affecting water supply, agriculture, and energy resources.
However, the agency noted that not all areas will experience reduced rainfall. Some parts of the western section of the country may still see above-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon or “Habagat” season.
The Department of Science and Technology, through PAGASA, said it will continue to closely monitor the situation and provide regular updates.
Authorities are urging government agencies and the public to stay informed and adopt precautionary measures early, particularly in sectors vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.
“Preparedness is key,” Pagasa said, emphasizing the importance of water conservation, agricultural planning, and disaster risk reduction as the country braces for the possible onset of El Niño.
